Crime (both violent and all offenses) stands at 55-year lows, driven by huge drops in cities and among increasingly diverse youth \u2013 exactly the opposite of Saager\u2019s panic mode. (This article originally appeared in\u00a0LA Progressive<\/a>).<\/em><\/p>\n Saager Enjeti<\/a>, self-described conservative co-anchor on the leftist\u00a0Breaking Points<\/em>\u00a0(1.4 million subscribers), prides himself as the meticulous, well-read realist reining in liberal-left excesses.<\/p>\n On crime and youth issues, however, he\u2019s wildly wrong, venting incessant alarmism that can do real damage to reasoned policy.<\/p>\n Saager (Breaking Points<\/em>\u00a0hosts seem to prefer first names) contradicts himself in such rapid-fire delivery it\u2019s hard to sift out a coherent argument beyond rage at Black Lives Matter (BLM) and \u201cliberal\u2026 soft on crime do-gooder policies like oh, these poor little juveniles\u201d whose \u201cleniency\u201d has \u201cled to an explosion in carjackings\u201d and kids \u201cwreak(ing) havoc.\u201d<\/p>\n Washington DC\u2019s \u201ctwo huge problems\u201d are \u201cjuvenile offenders\u201d and youthful \u201ccarjackings,\u201d he declares, tossing in \u201cquality of life\u201d affronts, a codeword for annoyance at homelessness and drug addiction (just as \u201cyouth\u201d is the codeword for \u201cBlack\u201d).<\/p>\n Saager constantly shifts on exactly when DC and other cities \u201cwent to shit\u201d and what exactly the shit is. He variously lauds 2000 as the year when crime, particularly violence by youth, \u201cwasn\u2019t happening\u201d due to tough policing. Then, 2010 was when the pro-criminal-coddlers took over. Then it was 2014. Then \u201cthe last five years,\u201d following BLM.<\/p>\n Cherry-picking years to compare is proof of deception. Re-cherry-picking different years multiplies the sins. Getting crime trends wrong is the final crusher.<\/p>\n Nothing Saager says on crime and youth is even remotely true<\/strong><\/p>\n \u2026as he\u2019d know if he glanced at readily available\u00a0FBI<\/a>,\u00a0Centers for Disease Control<\/a>, and DC\u00a0Metropolitan Police<\/a>\u00a0numbers instead of rehashing media and right-wing quips.<\/p>\n In fact, crime and violence rates now stand at half-century lows, both in Washington DC and San Francisco, two \u201cunlivable\u201d cities\u00a0he singles out for \u201csoft-on-crime\u201d lambasting, and nationwide. These improvements are driven by youth, who have shown by far the biggest, 80% to 90% drops over the last 30 years in violence and crime, including homicide.<\/p>\n Some areas of both cities and rural America remain dangerous, but general \u201cfeelings\u201d of endangerment are driven by\u00a0media histrionics<\/a>\u00a0like Saager\u2019s. The charts below summarize the real crime trends.<\/p>\n Figure 1. Major\u00a0violent and property offenses reported per 100,000 population, 1970-2024\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n Source:\u00a0FBI<\/a>,\u00a01970<\/a>–2024<\/a>.<\/p>\n By the best of flawed measures, national and Washington DC\u00a0crime<\/a>\u00a0has not risen since 2010, or 2014 or 2019 or whatever year Saager randomly miscites to mis-blame \u201cFerguson and BLM [Black Lives Matter] anti-police policies\u201d for whatever made crime \u201cskyrocket,\u201d whenever it skyrocketed.<\/p>\n Saager focuses vitriol on Washington and San Francisco, which he accuses of becoming \u201cunlivable\u201d due to \u201csoft on crime\u201d policies. Figures 2 and 3 show these cities\u2019 crime trends per 100,000 population over the last 25 years:<\/p>\n Figure 2. Washington DC crime rates, 2000-2024<\/strong><\/p>\n Source:\u00a0MetropolitanPolice<\/a>, 2025<\/p>\n Figure 3. San Francisco crime rates, 2000-2024<\/strong><\/p>\n Source: California\u00a0<\/span>Open Justice<\/a>\u00a0(2025).<\/span><\/p>\n Saager alternatingly complains about violent crime (which stands at near-record lows), then, when challenged, insists he\u2019s really talking about \u201cquality of life\u201d (which means encountering unpleasant things). I\u2019m guessing Saager has never been victimized by an assault or armed robbery, as I have, or he\u2019d appreciate that violence diminishes \u201cquality of life\u201d infinitely more than seeing a homeless addict.<\/p>\n Crime statistics are eminently criticizable. But to refute them, critics have to show they have better sources of information than FBI, state, local, National Crime Victimization, and CDC tabulations that consistently show crime, violence, and youthful offending all are down big time, everywhere. to paraphrase, the plurals of \u201cmy feelings\u201d and \u201cwhat happened to me\u201d are not \u201cdata.\u201d<\/p>\n That said, even in the two cities he singles out, both violent and total crimes are down, often substantially, compared to all the previous, pre-soft-on-crime years when he insists police were tough and unhampered by BLM. San Francisco\u2019s mid-2010s spike in\u00a0property crime<\/a>\u00a0was due entirely to the temporary presence of roving\u00a0\u201csmash and grab\u201d car burglary rings, not policy.<\/p>\n Contrary to Saager\u2019s claim, the \u201cFerguson effect\u201d of police being too \u201cscared\u201d by \u201canti-police\u201d BLM rhetoric to enforce laws is not \u201cproven fact;\u201d not even nearly. It is highly disputed,\u00a0solidly refuted<\/a>, and not confirmed by trends \u2013 unless he wants to admit less harsh policing yields less crime.<\/p>\n Nor are carjackings DC\u2019s biggest crime problem. All robberies, of which carjackings (robbery of a vehicle) are just one part, comprise less than 12% of the city\u2019s Part I violence and property felonies.<\/p>\n What, then, is Washington DC\u2019s real \u201ccrime problem\u201d?<\/strong><\/p>\n Imagine how radically different Saager\u2019s \u201ccrime is bad!\u201d rants would be if he admitted his\u00a0own<\/em>\u00a030-agers (he\u2019s 33) \u2013 not easily scapegoated \u201cyouths\u201d \u2013 were\u00a0by far<\/em>\u00a0Washington DC\u2019s and the nation\u2019s the most serious crime, violence, murder, disorderly conduct, and drug abuse problem.<\/p>\n Not only are youth (mobbers, carjackers and all) NOT DC\u2019s, the nation\u2019s, or any city\u2019s worst crime problem; they are lesser and declining contributors far down the list.<\/p>\n Figure 4. U.S. violent offenses per 100,000 population, youths versus 30-agers, 2000-2024.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n Source: FBI,\u00a0<\/span>Crime Data Explorer<\/a>, 2025;\u00a0<\/span>Crime in the United States<\/a>, 1995-2019.<\/span><\/p>\n Figure 4. U.S., all criminal offenses per 100,000 population, youths versus 30-agers, 2000-2024.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n Source: FBI,\u00a0<\/span>Crime Data Explorer<\/a>, 2025;\u00a0<\/span>Crime in the United States<\/a>, 1995-2019.<\/span><\/p>\n Criminal behavior by Saager\u2019s age cohort, 30-34, makes the city\u2019s juveniles look tame. In 2024, DC\u00a0police reports<\/a>\u00a0show:<\/p>\n Go back to 2010, which Saager seems to regard as some nirvana when tough, pre-BLM policing prevailed resulting in low crime and youth offending, Metro police stats show that juveniles accounted for 9.7% of DC\u2019s crime (1.8 TIMES MORE than today\u2019s youthful crime), while 30-agers accounted for 12.4% (just HALF of today\u2019s 30-age crime toll).<\/p>\n That is, DC\u2019s juvenile crime volume has fallen during the supposed \u201clenient\u201d era, while 30-age crime has skyrocketed.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n Today, juvenile crime today is less of a problem than crime by ages 30-34, 25-29, 35-39, 18-24, and 40-44. This isn\u2019t a fluke. Figures for 2023, 2022, and other recent years and cities are similar.<\/p>\n Notice that little post-2020 blip at the far righthand sides of Figures 2 and 3, in which crime increased for all ages as the country re-opened after the record lows coinciding with the COVID lockdowns?\u00a0That\u2019s what all the media ranters mean when they talk about crime \u201cskyrocketing\u201d!<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n No matter. Police, politicians like President Trump, and the press eagerly seize on any juvenile offense (such as the alleged youthful assault on Trump-Musk minion \u201cBig Balls\u201d) as \u201cillustrating\u201d some scourge of \u201cyouth violence!\u201d and \u201cjuveniles out of control!\u201d \u2013 a perpetual mantra they regularly bray year after year, decade after decade.<\/p>\n For example, sensational reports of \u201cunruly mobs\u201d of youths have grabbed headlines when a small number in a group of hundreds are disorderly. Teenagers (especially Black ones, who comprise 90% of DC\u2019s youth arrests) are politically powerless, easy for armchair pundits to scapegoat.<\/p>\n Yet, when grownups go to bars weekend after weekend and collectively cause more crimes, no one blames all adults. No bad press or curfew demands afflict older ages, not even when police numbers show that Saager\u2019s own age causes far more\u00a0disorderly conduct, drunkenness, and assault<\/a>\u00a0offenses than teenaged youths do.<\/p>\n![\"partIcrime7024.png\"](\"https:\/\/cdn.prod.dailykos.com\/images\/1472372\/large\/partIcrime7024.png?1756406180\")
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