{"id":840,"date":"2014-12-02T08:25:43","date_gmt":"2014-12-02T08:25:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.youthfacts.org\/?page_id=840"},"modified":"2014-12-02T08:25:43","modified_gmt":"2014-12-02T08:25:43","slug":"but-arent-youth-committing-more-serious-crimes-today","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/www.youthfacts.org\/?page_id=840","title":{"rendered":"But aren\u2019t youth committing more serious crimes today?"},"content":{"rendered":"

But aren\u2019t youth committing more serious crimes today?<\/strong><\/p>\n

NO. They are committing LESS than previous generations.<\/p>\n

Let\u2019s look at the three major ways to measure crime:<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. FBI Uniform Crime Reports<\/a> of arrests by age and offenses solved by the arrest of a youth. These annual reports are available in modern form from 1964 through 2005.<\/li>\n
  2. The Bureau of Justice Statistics\u2019 National Crime Victimization Survey<\/a> surveys a representative sample of more than 100,000 Americans annually on their victimizations by various types of crimes, including the perceived age of the offender. The NCVS, available from 1973 through 2005, is considered our best measure of crime because it captures offenses that are not reported to police.<\/li>\n
  3. The Institute for Social Research\u2019s Monitoring the Future<\/a>, surveys a representative sample of high school seniors every year on victimizations and delinquent activities such as fighting, robbery, and weapons offenses. MTF is available from 1975 through 2005.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

     <\/p>\n

    These three very different measures of crime\u2014offenses reported to police and cleared by arrest, arrest rates by age for serious crimes, and anonymous surveys of crime by victims\u2014yield very similar results: violence and major property crime by young people has plummeted to record low levels over the last generation. Add this to record low levels of homicide by and against younger people shown in FBI and vital statistics reports, and it is hard to escape the conclusion that today\u2019s youth are the least criminal and violent in many a decade, and perhaps ever.<\/p>\n

    Let\u2019s look at the leading measures of crime:<\/p>\n

    I. The FBI\u2019s best composite measure of crime by youth is the percentage of offenses \u201ccleared<\/a>\u201d (that is, solved) by the arrest of a youth under age 18 (shown in Table 28<\/a> of the 2005 Uniform Crime Reports, and corresponding tables for previous years). Beginning in 1964, the FBI began collecting reports from thousands of law enforcement agencies in a dozen population categories, from cities over 250,000 people in size to small towns and rural agencies.<\/p>\n

    Better than raw arrests (which overestimate youth crime, since teenagers tend to be over-arrested and then released more than adults are), crime clearance measures<\/span> correctly estimate the impact of juvenile crime on society. Since clearances are expressed as the percentage of the total cleared offenses committed by youth, they have to be adjusted by the percentage of the total population comprised by youths.<\/p>\n

    Table 1<\/b> But aren\u2019t youth committing more of our crime today? NO!<\/p>\n

    The percent of America\u2019s total crime estimated by the FBI to have been committed by, and the percent of the population, age 10-17: Youth vs. Adults<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
    \n
    Annual Average<\/div>\n<\/th>\n
    		\n
    Major Crime*<\/div>\n<\/th>\n
    		\n
    Population<\/div>\n<\/th>\n
    		\n
    Odds Ratio*<\/div>\n<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n
    \n
    1964-69<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
    		\n
    32.1%<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
    		\n
    21.9%<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
    		\n
    1.69<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    \n
    1970-74<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
    		\n
    29.3%<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
    		\n
    21.8%<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
    		\n
    1.49<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    \n
    1975-79<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
    		\n
    28.7%<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
    		\n
    19.8%<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
    		\n
    1.63<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    \n
    1980-84<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
    		\n
    21.3%<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
    		\n
    17.3%<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
    		\n
    1.29<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    \n
    1985-89<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
    		\n
    18.6%<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
    		\n
    15.6%<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
    		\n
    1.24<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    \n
    1990-94<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
    		\n
    20.2%<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
    		\n
    15.3%<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
    		\n
    1.40<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    \n
    1995-99<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
    		\n
    20.2%<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
    		\n
    15.8%<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
    		\n
    1.35<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    \n
    2005<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
    		\n
    16.6%<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
    		\n
    15.4%<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
    		\n
    1.09<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    \n
    Change<\/strong><\/div>\n<\/td>\n
    		\n
    -44%<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
    		\n
    +35%<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
    		<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

     <\/p>\n

    Source: FBI Uniform Crime Reports, crimes cleared by the arrest of persons under 18, 1964-2005. Population<\/a> is percent of population ages 10-64 that is age 10-17.<\/p>\n

    *Major, or Part I crime<\/a> consists of the four major violent offenses (murder, rape, robbery, aggravated assault), and the four major property offenses (burglary, larceny\/theft, motor vehicle theft, and arson) used by the FBI as the \u201cindex of crime.\u201d<\/p>\n

    **The odds ratio<\/a> is a standard statistic measuring, in this case, the odds of a youth versus an adult committing a serious crime. It shows (a) the percentage of crime committed by youth divided by the percentage of the population comprised by youth, divided by (b) the percentage of crime committed by adults divided by the percentage of the population comprised by adults.<\/p>\n

    Table 1<\/b> Arranged by multiple years, shows a startling trend:<\/p>\n